Posted By: Eugene Taylor
By Marie HorriganWed Nov 1, 7:00 PM ET
CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the Connecticut Senate race to Safe Democratic from Democrat Favored — an acknowledgement that there now appears no way that the unheralded Republican nominee, former state Rep. Alan Schlesinger, will win.
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Still uncertain, however, is which Democrat will prevail in the vote next Tuesday.
There are two, locked in a rematch of an Aug. 8 primary that was one of the most stunning political events this year.
The party nominee is Ned Lamont, who defeated Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (news, bio, voting record) in a primary campaign driven by liberal activists’ anger over the incumbent’s consistent support for the war in Iraq.
Lieberman is still running, though, pursuing re-election as an independent — but has repeatedly pledged to continue serving as a Democrat if he wins a fourth Senate term.
The decision on how to designate the race, in light of Lieberman’s primary defeat, has been perhaps the most complicated for CQPolitics.com’s election analysts during this campaign year.
The continued designation of Lieberman as a Democrat has sparked disagreement from some — including Democrats who view the self-described centrist as too cozy with President Bush — who contend that designation only properly resides with Lamont. They view Lieberman as having bolted the party by running as an independent and failing to observe the judgment of the Democratic primary voters.
But the main purpose of CQPolitics.com’s ratings is to help readers make their best determination of which party will control the Senate and the House when the 110th Congress convenes in January. And since Lieberman has been adamant that he remains and would continue to serve as a Democrat, that is where the matter stands.
Polls taken since the primary have suggested that wealthy businessman Lamont — though well-funded, largely because of his willingness to reach deeply into his own pockets — has struggled to deflect Lieberman’s portrayal of him as a single-issue candidate who has little to commend him to voters outside his opposition to the Iraq war.
Lieberman also has benefited from usual rapport that his posture as a moderate has earned him with Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters in Connecticut, and from concerns among even some Democrats who disagree with him on the war about a negative impact on the state from losing his seniority and the clout that comes with it.
Yet the most recent major poll suggests that the race, though not quite close, has gotten closer.
A survey released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University found Lieberman leading Lamont by 12 percentage points, 49 percent to 37 percent, a tightening from the 17-point lead he held in a Quinnipiac poll released Oct. 20.
Lamont hopes for a big come-from-behind general election victory appear to hinge on a late upsurge by Republican nominee Schlesinger.
Schlesinger, the former mayor of Derby in southern Connecticut, has been hampered by tepid support from the state party leadership and rumors about his gambling habits. He ended up unopposed for the GOP nomination, ironically, because Republicans saw little hope of seriously challenging Lieberman, who had enjoyed strong job approval ratings through most of a career that included his nomination as the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee.
In debates featuring all three candidates, Schlesinger has gone after Lieberman aggressively, seeking to bring GOP voters home to the Republican ticket by citing the senator’s mostly liberal Senate voting record and trying to debunk Lamont’s argument that Lieberman is too conservative and a closet Republican.
Any Republican vote that Schlesinger gains is likely to come at the expense of Lieberman, to whom many GOP voters have rallied as the viable alternative to Lamont. But the Quinnipiac poll suggests Schlesinger has made little dent so far: He was supported by 8 percent of the respondents — up from 6 percent in the poll released Oct. 20.
The survey indicated that Lieberman had the backing of nearly three-quarters of the Republican respondents, with 19 percent for Schlesinger and 6 percent for Lamont.
Lieberman’s support among independent voters has dropped over the past several weeks, however, from 58 percent in the October poll to 51 percent in the most recent one; 36 percent of independents opted for Lamont, with 6 percent naming Schlesinger.
According to the poll, Lamont’s strength is among the state’s Democratic voters, with whom he holds a 56 percent majority to 37 percent for Lieberman and 3 percent for Schlesinger.
Doug Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said it was not a foregone conclusion that Lieberman would win the race, but that it would be difficult for Lamont to narrow the 12-point gap over the next week.
The biggest problem for Lamont at this late stage of the campaign may be reopening the minds of voters who say they have already selected their candidate. Only 5 percent of respondents reported they were undecided, while 12 percent of those who selected a candidate said their choice might change between now and Election Day.
Campaigning between Lamont and Lieberman remains at a fever pitch, with Connecticut residents deluged by attack ads from both campaigns. Lamont outspent Lieberman $12.6 million to $11.5 million as of Oct. 18, the latest date covered by the most recent Federal Election Commission filing.
Lamont has continued pouring his personal resources into his campaign over the past several weeks, to the tune of $10.8 million throughout the election cycle, according to CQ’s PoliticalMoneyLine.com, with $3.1 million coming from individual donors. For Lieberman, by contrast, $13.4 million of his campaign contributions came from individual donors.
Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races.
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